240
FXUS62 KTBW 010819
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
419 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Reduced rain chances expected for the holiday as a weak surface
low is currently near Cape Canaveral along a lingering frontal
boundary extending W/SW from the W Atlantic across SWFL and into
the gulf. N/NE surface and low level flow north of the boundary
will help temper overall instability and rain chances today and
Tuesday, representing a notable shift in forecast reasoning
compared to 24 hours ago, when the expectation was that the
boundary would remain a bit further north allowing deeper moisture
to remain over the area fostering higher rain chances through the
early part of the week. Nevertheless, PWATs continuing between
1.6-1.9 inches will still support scattered showers and storms
developing across parts of the area this afternoon, generally
within the deeper moisture over parts of the interior and south
of I-4 this afternoon into evening. SWFL locations south of the
boundary in the Punta Gorda and Fort Myers vicinity may get an
earlier start with showers possible later this morning as the flow
remains more onshore, and many WC/SWFL locations will start out
the morning under areas of low cloudiness as low level Atlantic
moisture streams S/SW across the peninsula.

Similar setup likely through mid week to perhaps late week, so
long as the boundary remains to the south, which seems reasonable
as longwave troughing that has been over the E U.S. and Seaboard
for much of the past week is progged to remain in the general
vicinity into the weekend as reinforcing shortwaves propagate
through the E and SE U.S. Therefore can expect daily scattered
shower and storms, with chances increasing with southward extent
across the peninsula. Highs expected near climatological norms
for early September, in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Updated to include MVFR cig potential mainly across northern
terminals through the morning as low level Atlantic moisture
advects S/SW across the peninsula, followed by VFR returning late
morning into early afternoon. Otherwise, N/NE flow with slightly
drier conditions expected through the cycle, but some shower/storm
chances remain particularly mid afternoon through early evening
with southward propagating convection within the overall flow,
prompting PROB30 groups generally within the 18-24Z period for
greatest likelihood. Light winds overnight increase to N/NE 5-10
knots by early afternoon, turning onshore for a few hours at
southern terminals, generally remaining within that range through
the end of the cycle, although slightly higher winds with some
gustiness will be possible in the evening before diminishing
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Breezy northeast winds approaching exercise caution levels likely
again across the northeastern Gulf waters Monday night north of a
boundary over the southern waters. Winds diminish into mid week,
however shower and storm chances will continue through the week,
particularly in the vicinity of the boundary.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

North to northeast winds expected for most of the area through
the week north of a boundary over the southern half of the
peninsula. Daily scattered showers and storms continue through
the week with highest chances over the interior and west central
and southwest FL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  76  90  77 /  50  20  60  40
FMY  91  75  91  75 /  70  30  70  50
GIF  89  75  90  75 /  60  20  70  30
SRQ  90  74  88  75 /  50  30  60  50
BKV  89  71  89  71 /  50  10  50  30
SPG  88  76  88  76 /  50  30  60  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Hurt