288
FXUS62 KTBW 171106
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
706 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025
Mainly VFR conditions expected this morning before convection
fires up this afternoon. Have kept TEMPO groups in place for all
terminals to account for storms that could move over any site this
afternoon/evening, with gusty winds and MVFR/IFR conditions.
Storms will diminish after 02Z or so.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025
Surface high pressure will build over the region from the east,
with the ridge axis north of the forecast area. This will create
south to southeast boundary layer flow across the peninsula which
will hold the west coast sea breeze close to the coast this
afternoon. Deep tropical moisture remains over the area, and
combination of a conditionally unstable atmosphere and daytime
heating will allow scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
to develop this afternoon...increasing in areal coverage over the
coastal counties during the mid/late afternoon along the west
coast sea breeze boundary. Locally heavy rain will be possible,
and can`t rule out an isolated pulse strong/severe storm.

A strong U/L ridge will build over the Florida peninsula on Friday,
and will hold over the region through the weekend. This will create
large scale subsidence and above normal temperatures across west
central and southwest Florida. Combined with drier air aloft also
advecting over the area, this will decrease the chance of rain
with below normal POPs each day.

The U/L ridge will retrograde west of the area to the Lower
Mississippi Valley early next week. Monday will be a transition day
as deep layer moisture begins to recover and onshore boundary layer
flow becomes established. This will cause highest POPs to shift
inland.

Quite a bit of uncertainty in the extended period as another U/L
low may push across the Florida peninsula mid week moving from
east to west. This would enhance convective instability across the
forecast area increasing POPs and the risk for locally heavy rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025
High pressure will hold over the waters through the period. Winds
and seas will remain below cautionary levels each day. Main
hazard will be scattered showers and thunderstorms which will be
capable of producing locally gusty winds and rough seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025
No fire weather hazards are expected as minimum afternoon
relative humidity values well above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  79  94  80 /  70  30  40  20
FMY  93  77  95  76 /  70  30  40  10
GIF  94  77  96  77 /  60  20  30  10
SRQ  93  76  94  76 /  70  30  40  20
BKV  94  73  94  73 /  60  30  40  10
SPG  90  79  91  79 /  70  40  30  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$