658
FXUS62 KTBW 171706
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
106 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated through most of the
period. Confidence has increased slightly in storms potentially
reaching TPA/PIE/SRQ this evening and PROB30 line has been added
to reflect this. Southeasterly winds remain in place with before
shifting onshore behind the sea breeze. Lower ceiling and
visibilities will be possible if storms develop, otherwise
VFR conditions are expected the rest of the period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A quiet start across the peninsula. Much drier air continues to
filter into the area. This morning`s sounding showed PWs around
1.3 inches so not a lot of activity is anticipated today. However,
model guidance brings pockets of higher moisture later this
afternoon and evening along the sea breeze. Southeasterly winds
prevail, which will help the delay the development of storms.
Additionally, very warm and humid conditions in place at the
surface so stay hydrated.

No changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  94  79  93 /  40  40  40  40
FMY  75  94  76  94 /  30  40  20  40
GIF  76  95  76  95 /  20  40  10  40
SRQ  76  93  76  92 /  50  40  40  40
BKV  72  95  72  95 /  30  40  30  40
SPG  80  91  79  91 /  50  40  40  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery