322
FXUS62 KTBW 030617
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
217 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

VFR conditions anticipated at most terminals overnight and into
the morning hours. Light showers over the water could bring
periods of light rain near SW FL TAF sites through the next few
hours, but most areas should remain dry. Moisture increases through
the day increasing rain chances, however, pockets of drier
air could limit development during the afternoon. Less confidence
on how much and where storms will develop led to keeping a
combination of PROB30s near Tampa Bay sites and VCTS areas south.
Light east to northeasterly winds prevail before becoming west to
northwesterly in the afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Drier air on the west side of a weak area of low pressure east of
Florida has helped limit shower and storm activity through the day.
Latest radar imagery is showing a few pop up showers over the area,
but this will likely taper off after sunset with mostly rain-free
conditions expected overnight. Made some slight tweaks to the POPs
based on latest radar trends, otherwise forecast looks good.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  77  91  78 /  30  20  50  20
FMY  91  76  89  76 /  60  50  70  50
GIF  92  75  92  75 /  40  20  60  10
SRQ  90  75  89  75 /  30  40  60  30
BKV  91  72  91  72 /  20  10  40  10
SPG  88  77  88  77 /  30  30  60  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Wynn/Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce