291
FXUS62 KTBW 301740
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
140 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

A front is currently stalled in North Florida however it look to
stay far enough away that is will not be influencing our weather to much
today except for the Nature Coast. The Nature Coast will see more
coverage of showers and storms throughout the day today. For the
rest of us we will still be sitting in Southwest Florida which
will favor storms more on the east coast of FLorida and in SW
Florida.

By Sunday this front will sag south and remain over the area through
at least Wednesday. This will result in PW staying above 2 inches
and widespread showers each day. This will be a very similiar to
what we saw last weekend. The biggest concern with this pattern will
be localized flooding each day.

A strong upper level trough looks to help finally push the front
south on Thursday but some remaining moisture could lead to one more
wet day for Southwest Florida. After that the models have been
showing uncharacteristic dry air filtering in by Friday which should
limit shower activity to wrap up the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Southwesterly flow will keep most of the storm activity away from
the west coast today. However there will be small window for most
coastal sites to see storms which was highlighted with a VCTS.
Better chance of storms in SW Florida through the afternoon and
evening hours. Winds will generally stay below 10 knots with VFR
conditions outside of thunderstorms. Moisture will increase
tomorrow which will better chances of showers and storms across
our TAF sites.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

A front over the area will bring northerly winds to our
area through Tuesday with speeds around 5 to 10 knots. The front
will also increase shower chances over the water with widespread
showers mainly during the overnight and morning hours. Winds will
shift southerly on Wednesday but the higher then normal shower
chances will remain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at
a minimum.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  77  88  77 /  40  30  70  40
FMY  92  76  90  76 /  40  20  70  50
GIF  92  75  89  75 /  40  20  70  20
SRQ  90  76  89  75 /  30  40  70  50
BKV  89  72  89  71 /  50  20  70  30
SPG  88  78  87  76 /  40  40  70  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana