336
FXUS62 KTBW 290648
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
248 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Pattern aloft continues to feature longwave troughing over the E
U.S. extending south into FL while a quasi-stationary surface
boundary continues to linger near the panhandle. No large scale
overall change anticipated through the weekend and much of next
week, however embedded shortwave impulses propagating through the
westerly flow over the N Gulf region will bring periods of
increased moisture and rainfall chances across the peninsula,
particularly late this weekend into early next week. PWATs remain
in the 1.5-1.75 inch range currently per latest sounding and meso-
analysis, but are expected to increase into the 1.75-2 inch range
on Saturday before approaching 2+ inches for most of the area
during the Sunday through Tuesday period as the surface boundary
settles southward over the peninsula in response to persistent
shortwave impulses digging E-ESE over the SE U.S. over the weekend
and early next week. Resulting deep layer W/SW flow over the area
will favor numerous to potentially widespread showers and storms
Sunday through Tuesday, with localized flooding possible in urban,
low lying and poor drainage areas. For today, generally scattered
afternoon and evening showers and storms will be likely,
primarily affecting interior locations along with Nature Coast and
SWFL locations, with lower rain chances toward the coast,
particularly across WCFL. Similar setup and areas favored for
Saturday but with higher overall chances, with both today and
Saturday featuring Marginal Risk ERO areas highlighted by WPC
across northern Nature Coast and far interior locations, followed
by the Marginal Risk expanding on Sunday through Tuesday to
include most the peninsula. Approaching mid week there are
indications that relatively drier air attempts to filter southward
into the peninsula as the boundary may get enough of a southward
push to sink closer to S FL by mid week as yet another shortwave
impulse digs across the Srn/SE U.S., however uncertainty in the
details remains at this time range. High temps remain somewhat
tempered by likely cloud cover through much of the period, with
highs in the lower to mid 90s today dropping a few degrees into
the upper 80s to lower 90s over the weekend, followed by the upper
80s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Mainly VFR through period. Afternoon through evening showers and
storms likely to focus east of terminals over the interior but may
stray close enough to impact LAL and SWFL terminals, with PROB30
group for most likely timeframe between 19-23Z. Winds light and
variable, increasing and turning onshore late morning into early
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

A lingering frontal boundary will remain near the waters through
the weekend with gradually increasing rain chances. Winds and seas
are expected to remain below cautionary levels, with locally
higher winds and seas in/near showers and storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

A lingering frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity into next
week with gradually increasing rain chances and scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the weekend.
RH values are expected to remain above critical thresholds with
winds remaining light, with no significant fire weather concerns
anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  89  77 /  40  20  70  40
FMY  93  76  91  76 /  50  30  70  30
GIF  93  75  91  75 /  60  20  80  20
SRQ  90  75  89  76 /  30  20  60  40
BKV  91  72  89  72 /  40  20  70  30
SPG  89  77  86  77 /  30  20  60  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Hurt