251
FXUS62 KTBW 170739
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
339 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Showers still lingering along the coast north of Pinellas. These
showers should slowly dissipate as we get closer to sunrise.
Ridging to our north will continue to give us southeasterly flow
through Friday. This will help to keep the highest shower chances
along the west coast of Florida. The big difference in the forecast
for the rest of the week will be drier air aloft filtering in. We
can already see the difference in our evening skew-t which was down
to 1.6 compared to the 1.8 to 1.9 we have been seeing since the
weekend. So even though the west coast of Florida should see the
most activity over the week we can expected to see it limited with
PoPs mainly in the 30 to 40 percent range.

As we head into the weekend and early next week the orientation of
the ridge will change giving us more of a northeasterly flow. This
puts us in regime 2 which typical brings the highest rain shower
chances into SW Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR conditions expected outside of thunderstorms through the
period. South to southeasterly winds will continue generally at or
below 10 knots. Drier air aloft will bring shower chances down
with the best chance of storms in SW Florida. Even though we will
see storm chances everywhere else they remain low and have decided
to keep in out of TAFs for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Winds will continue out of the southeast through the
period mainly between 5 to 10 knots. The only exception to this will
be this afternoon in the offshore waters where winds could get to 10
to 15 knots. Southeasterly flow will bring the best chance for
thunderstorms in the evening and overnight hours as storms get
pushed off the coast.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a
minimum.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  94  79 /  30  40  40  40
FMY  93  75  94  76 /  60  30  40  20
GIF  95  76  95  76 /  40  20  40  10
SRQ  91  76  93  76 /  30  50  40  40
BKV  93  72  95  72 /  30  30  40  30
SPG  91  80  91  79 /  30  50  40  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley