355
FXUS62 KTBW 302341
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
741 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 741 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

While deep moisture to the south of a stalled frontal boundary
allowed storms to develop over the eastern Gulf and stream across
the Nature Coast counties, a pocket of drier air kept the rest of
the area largely rain free today. Overnight, isolated to scattered
showers are expected to continue over the eastern Gulf, and could
shift into the coast at times, though otherwise rain free and
quiet weather is forecast to hold through the early morning hours.

Rain chances have been lowered for the next couple of hours
across central and southern counties in the forecast area to keep
up with radar trends. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track with
moisture and rain chances increasing through the day on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Mainly rain free and VFR conditions are expected to hold through
the overnight hours. Showers and storms will begin to shift
onshore by mid morning, potentially disrupting area terminals by
around 14z. More widespread thunderstorms are forecast for the
afternoon hours on Sunday, then storms will weaken and shift
inland of area terminals from around 22-00z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 741 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Atmospheric moisture is increasing across the waters to the south
of a stalled frontal boundary, allowing thunderstorm coverage to
increase through Sunday. Thunderstorm chances will remain elevated
through the first half of the week as the frontal boundary slowly
shifts south into the area. Outside of daily thunderstorms, winds
will generally remain around 15 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  88  77  90 /  40  70  40  70
FMY  76  90  76  90 /  20  70  50  80
GIF  75  89  75  91 /  20  70  20  70
SRQ  76  89  75  89 /  40  70  50  70
BKV  72  89  71  89 /  30  70  30  60
SPG  78  87  76  87 /  40  70  40  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Fleming