600
FXUS62 KTBW 101234
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
734 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 732 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

-  Record breaking cold temperatures expected tonight/Tuesday
   morning and possibly some record low maximums on Tuesday.

-  Marine hazards are expected behind the strong cold front for
   Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025
The leading edge of the much anticipated cold front is currently
pushing across the nature coast...and will move across the
remainder of west central and southwest Florida during the
overnight and early morning hours. A band of broken showers ahead
of the front will move over the Tampa area during the next couple
of hours. The showers should gradually dissipate through the
overnight hours as they push inland and advance south. There has
even been a pocket of fog that has developed ahead of the front
over inland areas which has been locally dense. This will mix out
as the front/showers move over the region.

Cold Canadian high pressure will build over west central and
southwest Florida in the wake of the front today and tonight on
gusty northwest winds. Skies will become mostly clear by around
noon...but some cold air strato-cu will likely develop over the
Gulf waters due to the CAA over the warm waters, and scattered
clouds may advect locally onshore but dissipate as they move
inland. Temperatures will struggle today...and in many instances
will hold steady or fall slowly. Highs around 60 north...mid 60s
central...and upper 60s to lower 70s south.

High pressure will build over the area tonight with clear skies
and very cold north to northwest winds persisting. Record low
temperatures possible...which has been a rarity for many
locations. The record low for Tampa International airport is 40
degrees for Tuesday the 11th...and the current forecast is for 39.
As there have been abundant high temperature records set at TIA
over the past several years, this would mark the first record low
temp at TIA since Jan 18, 2018.

A freeze warning is in effect tonight/early Monday from 2 AM to 8
AM for portions of the nature coast...and a cold weather advisory
is in effect tonight/early Monday from 2 AM to 9 AM for all of
west central and southwest Florida. Temperatures will drop to
around 30 to the lower 30s across the nature coast...mid to upper
30s central...and around 40 to the lower 40s south. Temperatures
will be a bit warmer along the immediate coast. Gusty north to
northwest winds will make it feel even colder with wind chills in
the lower to mid 20s north...mid 20s to around 30 central...and
the lower to mid 30s south.

The surface high will hold over the region on Tuesday with highs
ranging from the mid to upper 50s north, the upper 50s to around
60 central, and the lower 60s south under sunny skies. This
equates the daily average temperature to be about 15 to 20 degrees
below climatic normals. Another cold night on tap Tuesday night
with lows in the lower to mid 30s north... upper 30s to lower 40s
central...and the mid 40s south. Caveat will be that winds will
be relatively light Tuesday night so wind chill readings are not
expected to be much different from the actual temperatures.

Surface high pressure will hold over the region the remainder of
the week with high pressure also building aloft. Temperatures will
moderate each day returning back to near climatic normals late in
the week...with skies mostly sunny during the day and mostly
clear at night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 732 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Main concern over the period will be the winds which are expected
to be gusting between 25 to 30 knot out of the north through the
day. Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 105 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025
Very hazardous boating conditions developing today as strong
northwest winds develop in the wake of a cold front, with SCA`s in
effect for all of the coastal waters. Winds and seas will
gradually subside late Tuesday through Wednesday. Relatively
benign conditions expected on the waters for the latter part of
the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025
Marginal red flag conditions across Levy county today as winds
will be strong and gusty and minimum relative humidity values
will approach critical levels. On Tuesday, widespread critical
RH`s will develop across all of west central and southwest
Florida...however, winds will be marginal and gradually decreasing
through the afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  65  39  61  44 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  73  42  62  45 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  67  36  58  42 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  69  40  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  62  30  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  65  42  60  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland
     Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor
     and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce