900
FXUS62 KTBW 161749
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
149 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.DISCUSSION...
A southeast/south low-level flow is in place across the local area
this afternoon as low pressure (AL93) moves westward along the
northern Gulf coast region. Showers and storms have been ongoing
over the Gulf since this morning and these should increase in
coverage across inland areas through the rest of the afternoon and
evening. This flow pattern continues Thursday, though moisture looks
to be higher and thus would favor higher overall storm coverage.

A more typical summer pattern returns starting Friday and continuing
into next week as ridging builds back in over the area. Looks like
some relatively drier air moves in through the weekend, decreasing
rain chances a bit, but still enough for storms each day, then some
models are showing a larger increase in moisture early next week
which would suggest another couple of heavy-rain-threat days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Scattered thunderstorms are developing across the region and could
affect any terminals through the afternoon and evening and will keep
TEMPO groups in place to account for this. A quiet overnight is
expected, then storm coverage is expected to be higher for tomorrow
afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeast to south winds will continue over the waters through the
next few days, approaching cautionary levels this afternoon and
tonight, but otherwise staying below headlines. Daily showers and
storms are expected, with locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels. Warm and humid summertime conditions will
continue, with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  79  94 /  20  70  30  50
FMY  76  93  77  95 /  20  80  20  60
GIF  76  94  77  96 /  20  70  10  50
SRQ  76  92  76  94 /  20  60  30  50
BKV  72  93  73  94 /  20  70  20  50
SPG  78  89  79  91 /  30  60  40  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$