Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
225 FXUS62 KTBW 180117 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 817 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy to areas of fog possible tonight. - Sunny, dry, and gradually warming conditions continue into next week. - Benign marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters. && .UPDATE... Issued at 814 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 A very diffuse frontal boundary is in place across central FL this evening but this feature will mostly wash out overnight. Hi-res guidance continues to hint at the potential of patchy fog development overnight given light flow and mostly clear skies other than some thin high level cirrus streaming over the region, which probably will have little effect in discouraging fog formation. While it appears that the highest fog chances will be around SWFL, most areas will at least have some potential but confidence in overall coverage remains low. Other than the fog potential, it will be a quiet evening with overnights lows falling into the low/mid 50s across the Nature Coast and upper 50s to low 60s for the remainder of the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 105 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 Not much changing in the overall pattern over the next 7 days. High pressure will move through the Mid Atlantic States over the next couple of days before pushing out into the Atlantic on Wednesday. However this high pressure will continue to keep ridging over the area through the weekend. This will result in a pretty benign weather pattern with sunny skies each day with lows in the 60`s and high in the mid 80`s. Only weather concern will be patchy fog that will develop in the early morning hours each day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 Patchy fog may develop overnight across portions of the area so IFR restrictions or worse could occur at some terminals, though forecast confidence remains low in overall development at this time. Regardless, any fog that develops will dissipate around 14Z Tuesday with VFR conditions in place for the remainder of the day and E winds at 5-7 kts but winds may shift to the NNW at coastal sites by the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 105 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 High pressure to our north through the week will help to give us pretty quiet weather. Winds will be out of the north and east through Thursday around 5 to 10 knot before shifting southeast on Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 105 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 High pressure will keep us under a quiet weather pattern over the work week with RH dropping down into the low 50`s each afternoon. Our only concern will be patchy fog that will be possible each afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 63 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 61 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 60 83 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 62 82 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 53 83 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 66 81 66 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn