Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
768
FXUS62 KTBW 181206
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
806 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Gusty marine winds causing hazardous boating conditions will
   improve later this morning. Marine winds will surge again tonight.

 - Rain-free conditions will hold for most of the week, except for
   a slight chance Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Upper level ridging over the eastern US today will slide east
into the Atlantic this weekend and early next week as a deep
trough swings through the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic
states. At the surface broad high pressure holding north of
Florida will give way to a weak cold front that will sweep through
the area late Sunday and Sunday night. This pattern will keep
easterly winds in place today, with seasonably warm temperatures
under sunny skies, and surface dew points in the upper 50s to low
60s, keeping humidity down. As low level winds turn to
southeasterly and southerly tonight and Sunday ahead of the
incoming front, surface dew points and humidity will increase, and
enough low level moisture will pool ahead of the front to allow
for a slight chance of showers Sunday afternoon and evening.
Slightly lower temperatures and dew points will fill into the
Nature Coast behind the front Sunday night and Monday, but the
front will not be strong enough to drop temperatures noticeably
farther south.

Surface high pressure will start to build back in behind the front
early next week, but another upper level trough will quickly move in
and bring a reinforcing dry cold front into the area by mid week.
While briefly lower temperatures will once again be mostly only felt
by the Nature Coast, this second front will drop surface dew points
across the area into the mid 40s to mid 60s Wednesday night,
making the air feel significantly less humid during the second
half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 805 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will be out of
the east and shift more southeasterly late in the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Breezy easterly winds this morning are triggering Small Craft
Exercise Caution headlines, but winds are forecast to subside later
this morning. Winds will surge back to near cautionary levels
tonight. A weak cold front will move through the waters late Sunday,
bringing a chance of showers Sunday and Sunday evening, then
north and northeast winds will fill in behind the front through
the first half of the week, with wind speeds generally running
around 15 knots or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Slightly drier air is filling into the area today, but relative
humidity will not drop to critically low levels this weekend. A cold
front will bring a slight chance of showers Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  70  88  72 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  87  68  89  72 /   0   0  10  10
GIF  85  66  89  70 /   0   0  10  10
SRQ  86  68  86  72 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  85  61  88  65 /   0   0  20  20
SPG  83  70  84  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery