Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
768 FXUS62 KTBW 181206 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 806 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty marine winds causing hazardous boating conditions will improve later this morning. Marine winds will surge again tonight. - Rain-free conditions will hold for most of the week, except for a slight chance Sunday afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Upper level ridging over the eastern US today will slide east into the Atlantic this weekend and early next week as a deep trough swings through the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic states. At the surface broad high pressure holding north of Florida will give way to a weak cold front that will sweep through the area late Sunday and Sunday night. This pattern will keep easterly winds in place today, with seasonably warm temperatures under sunny skies, and surface dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s, keeping humidity down. As low level winds turn to southeasterly and southerly tonight and Sunday ahead of the incoming front, surface dew points and humidity will increase, and enough low level moisture will pool ahead of the front to allow for a slight chance of showers Sunday afternoon and evening. Slightly lower temperatures and dew points will fill into the Nature Coast behind the front Sunday night and Monday, but the front will not be strong enough to drop temperatures noticeably farther south. Surface high pressure will start to build back in behind the front early next week, but another upper level trough will quickly move in and bring a reinforcing dry cold front into the area by mid week. While briefly lower temperatures will once again be mostly only felt by the Nature Coast, this second front will drop surface dew points across the area into the mid 40s to mid 60s Wednesday night, making the air feel significantly less humid during the second half of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 805 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will be out of the east and shift more southeasterly late in the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Breezy easterly winds this morning are triggering Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines, but winds are forecast to subside later this morning. Winds will surge back to near cautionary levels tonight. A weak cold front will move through the waters late Sunday, bringing a chance of showers Sunday and Sunday evening, then north and northeast winds will fill in behind the front through the first half of the week, with wind speeds generally running around 15 knots or less. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Slightly drier air is filling into the area today, but relative humidity will not drop to critically low levels this weekend. A cold front will bring a slight chance of showers Sunday and Sunday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 87 70 88 72 / 0 0 10 10 FMY 87 68 89 72 / 0 0 10 10 GIF 85 66 89 70 / 0 0 10 10 SRQ 86 68 86 72 / 0 0 10 10 BKV 85 61 88 65 / 0 0 20 20 SPG 83 70 84 73 / 0 0 10 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery