210
FXUS62 KTBW 041141
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
741 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 741 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

A few showers continue off the central and SWFL coast this morning.
This convection continues to be relatively low-topped, with rather
light reflectivities noted above 20kft. Water vapor satellite
imagery shows that Central FL is the dividing line between a drier,
more continental airmass to the north, and a more humid tropical
airmass to the south. Early 12Z sounding data shows a dry pocket in
the 550-400mb layer still in place over the Bay Area. Thus,
convection is likely to be limited today around and north of this
geographic region. Meanwhile, warm conditions continue areawide
as it is only early September.

The forecast remains on track this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Some convection is possible at all terminals today. However, the
greatest potential for impacts resides at SWFL terminals once again.
This is due to the deeper moisture and instability that remains
present, while the Tampa Bay region sits in the transition zone
between different airmasses. The greatest potential for convection
will continue to be at SWFL terminals for the days to come. However,
there could be a little bit more drier air tomorrow to limit the
potential somewhat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

A frontal boundary remains draped over southern Florida and for over
the next couple of days it will continue to linger. Moisture will
remain near the boundary, mostly over south Florida. Meanwhile, the
nature coast will be influenced by a dryer air mass, keeping the
best rain chances mainly south of I-4. This pattern continues into
the weekend with the only difference being a bit more dry air moving
in lower rain chances a little more. As the new week begins a
frontal boundary from the north will begin to dip down towards
Florida. More moisture and increased rain chances will accompany the
boundary as it moves south.

Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s, low 90s through the
forecast period. The only exception will be the weekend when rain
chances are limited, highs will reach back up into the mid 90s. The
weekend could see some heat indices back in the triple digits for
some areas.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Showers and storms will continue to develop over the waters early
this morning as a frontal boundary remains draped over south
Florida. Rain and storms decrease over the waters as we move into
the weekend thanks to dryer air moving in . Winds will remain below
15 knots through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

No major fire weather concerns through the period as ample moisture
keeps RH values above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  77  91  78 /  50  20  40  20
FMY  89  76  89  76 /  80  50  70  30
GIF  91  75  91  75 /  60  20  50  10
SRQ  90  74  90  75 /  60  30  50  30
BKV  91  71  92  72 /  40  10  30  10
SPG  88  76  89  77 /  50  20  40  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...TBW
DECISION SUPPORT...TBW
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...TBW