Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
280 FXUS62 KTBW 050534 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1234 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gradually warming temperatures into the weekend. - Next round of rain chances for the area expected this weekend. - Cooler temperatures and rain free conditions return early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the Florida peninsula today with continued partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures. Boundary layer winds will shift to the south to southwest advecting warm moist air across the region. Conditions will become favorable for areas of fog to develop Friday night, which will be locally dense. The fog will lift by mid morning on Saturday. Over the weekend, the U/L ridge will be suppressed south and east of the region as a mean broad trough develops over the eastern half of the U.S., which will gradually sink south over the Gulf and Florida. An associated cold front over the southeast U.S. will also gradually sink south across the Florida peninsula late in the weekend, with an increasing chance of showers on Saturday and Saturday night...and showers and a chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night. Surface high pressure will build over west central and southwest Florida in the wake of the cold front Monday and Monday night with drier cooler air advecting over the area on gusty north to northwest winds. The area of high pressure will hold over the region through mid week. With the U/L trough/lower heights still over the region next week, temperatures will remain near to a few degrees above climatic normals with highs in the upper 60s north to the upper 70s south...and lows in the 40s north, mid 50s central, and around 60 to the lower 60s south. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 Predominately VFR conditions are expected under mostly clear skies through the morning hours, with patchy fog developing around sunrise with LCL MVFR VSBYs, with the best chance at PGD and LAL. The fog will lift an hour or two after sunrise with skies becoming partly cloudy with FEW-SCT040 and SCT250. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 High pressure will hold over the waters today and Saturday with winds and seas below cautionary levels. A cold front will push across the waters late in the weekend with winds shifting to the north/northwest in the wake of the front and may approach advisory levels for 12 to 24 hours. Winds and seas will subside Monday night and Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 81 69 80 67 / 0 10 40 50 FMY 83 67 83 68 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 84 66 83 66 / 0 10 40 40 SRQ 79 68 80 67 / 0 10 20 30 BKV 83 63 80 60 / 10 20 50 60 SPG 78 70 78 68 / 0 10 40 50 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby