Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
864 FXUS62 KTBW 030701 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 201 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and drier through Thursday then warming trend into the weekend. - Next round of unsettled conditions over the weekend. - Improving conditions early next week along with cooler temps. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Westerly flow aloft over the peninsula this morning between broad troughing aloft encompassing most of the CONUS and ridging from the far S Gulf/NW Caribbean into the W Atlantic. A surface frontal boundary continues to push south across SWFL and will likely stall and remain in the S FL/FL Straits vicinity through late week. A series of shortwaves propagating eastward across the Deep South/SE U.S. this weekend will support the development of a few frontal waves while the lingering surface boundary lifts back north over the peninsula leading to increasing moisture and rain chances. While ridging may hold just enough on Saturday to keep highest rain chances confined to northern and Nature Coast locations, guidance indicates the ridging shifting E into the Atlantic on Sunday ahead of a more potent approaching shortwave, allowing deeper moisture to advect N/E over the peninsula ahead of the surface boundary pushing back S/E across the area leading to area wide shower and storm chances. Cooler drier air filters into the region in the wake of the front early next week as Canadian high pressure settles across the C/E U.S. favoring dry conditions and below normal temps across the local area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Post-frontal MVFR/LCL IFR cigs overnight into Wednesday morning remain primary concern, before lifting to VFR around midday. Generally N/NW winds expected, highest in afternoon while remaining below 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Cooler and drier conditions settle across the coastal waters with winds and seas continuing to diminish in the wake of a passing cold front. Quieter marine conditions persist into the weekend when the next cold front and rain chances arrive. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 Minimal fire weather concerns expected through the period as minimum RH values remain above critical thresholds. Rain free conditions through the end of the work week followed by rain chances over the weekend as a frontal boundary settles across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 55 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 81 59 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 77 54 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 75 55 79 61 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 73 46 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 73 57 77 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Hurt