464
FXUS62 KTBW 011356
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
956 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Regional radar imagery shows bands of light to occasional
moderate showers streaming into the northern Florida Atlantic
coast on the north side of a weak surface low centered around the
Space Coast. Meanwhile, scattered showers continue to move
onshore along the Gulf coast in south Florida as the broad
counter-clockwide rotation around the surface low yields a more
onshore flow further south. This surface low will gradually shift
southward along the Atlantic coast today with a large fetch of
northeasterly flow in place between this feature and high pressure
in New England, bringing enhanced moisture into much of the
central peninsula throughout the day. As bands of showers and
occasional storms rotate in the counter-clockwise fashion around
the surface low as it drops southward to SEFL by this evening,
increasing moisture combined with diurnal heating will bring
increasing rain chances in a general NE-to-SW fashion throughout
the day across west central and southwest Florida. However, the
more onshore nature of the flow around SWFL may favor higher rain
chances a bit more inland but will need to monitor how the
activity approaching from the north evolves as additional outflow
boundaries and the proximity of a frontal boundary may also serve
as a focus for some development. Regardless, mid level lapse rates
are rather poor so would mainly expect deep convection chances to
be minimal with most activity more likely to be low-topped in
nature. Otherwise, highs to start off September will be right
around climatological normals in the upper 80s to low 90s with any
precipitation activity that develops generally fading by around
late evening as daytime heating diminishes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Reduced rain chances expected for the holiday as a weak surface
low is currently near Cape Canaveral along a lingering frontal
boundary extending W/SW from the W Atlantic across SWFL and into
the gulf. N/NE surface and low level flow north of the boundary
will help temper overall instability and rain chances today and
Tuesday, representing a notable shift in forecast reasoning
compared to 24 hours ago, when the expectation was that the
boundary would remain a bit further north allowing deeper moisture
to remain over the area fostering higher rain chances through the
early part of the week. Nevertheless, PWATs continuing between
1.6-1.9 inches will still support scattered showers and storms
developing across parts of the area this afternoon, generally
within the deeper moisture over parts of the interior and south
of I-4 this afternoon into evening. SWFL locations south of the
boundary in the Punta Gorda and Fort Myers vicinity may get an
earlier start with showers possible later this morning as the flow
remains more onshore, and many WC/SWFL locations will start out
the morning under areas of low cloudiness as low level Atlantic
moisture streams S/SW across the peninsula.

Similar setup likely through mid week to perhaps late week, so
long as the boundary remains to the south, which seems reasonable
as longwave troughing that has been over the E U.S. and Seaboard
for much of the past week is progged to remain in the general
vicinity into the weekend as reinforcing shortwaves propagate
through the E and SE U.S. Therefore can expect daily scattered
shower and storms, with chances increasing with southward extent
across the peninsula. Highs expected near climatological norms
for early September, in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 805 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Low CIGs at the start of the period will gradually lift by late
morning but some restrictions may occur mainly at KLAL before
improvements occur. VFR conditions are then generally expected
area-wide for the remainder of the day but scattered TSRA is
expected to move across portions of the region by late afternoon
and evening with highest rain chances from 01/20Z-02/00Z. Thus,
brief flight restrictions may occur particularly during heavier
periods of precipitation but otherwise NE winds will be in place with
occasional gusts of 15-20 kts possible later today, though winds
will be more out of the NW direction in SWFL.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Breezy northeast winds approaching exercise caution levels likely
again across the northeastern Gulf waters Monday night north of a
boundary over the southern waters. Winds diminish into mid week,
however shower and storm chances will continue through the week,
particularly in the vicinity of the boundary.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

North to northeast winds expected for most of the area through
the week north of a boundary over the southern half of the
peninsula. Daily scattered showers and storms continue through
the week with highest chances over the interior and west central
and southwest FL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  76  90  77 /  50  20  60  40
FMY  91  75  91  75 /  70  30  70  50
GIF  89  75  90  75 /  60  20  70  30
SRQ  90  74  88  75 /  50  30  60  50
BKV  89  71  89  71 /  50  10  50  30
SPG  88  76  88  76 /  50  30  60  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby