Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
240 FXUS62 KTBW 020743 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 243 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 242 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 - Isolated to scattered showers today and tonight. - Winds increase Monday and Tuesday over the coastal waters will make for hazardous boating conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 In the upper levels, a deep trough is digging into the southeastern US today, resulting in a weak cutoff low that will linger over the eastern Gulf through the first half of the week. At the surface, broad high pressure north of the area is favoring light west and northwest flow, giving way to a weak cold front that will push south into the area tonight. Under this pattern temperatures and humidities will creep upwards today as moisture pools south of the front, resulting in a slight chance of showers today and tonight. With the front moving through the area tonight into Monday, temperatures and dew points will get knocked down a few degrees Monday and Monday night, with Tuesday morning lows generally in the mid 40s north to upper 50s and low 60s to the south and along the coast. Through the rest of the week, surface high pressure will build back in north of the state as the upper level jet stays well north of the forecast area. This will lead to increasing temperatures and humidities Tuesday through Saturday, with rain chances remaining minimal. Afternoon high temperatures during the second half of the week will run a few degrees above normal, generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 242 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 Mainly VFR conditions will hold through the next 24 hours. The possible exception will be with a few showers that are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening, potentially causing reduced ceilings and visibilities at times. However, rain chances are too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 242 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 High pressure north of the waters will keep east and northeast flow in place today, with around a 10-30 percent chance of showers today and tonight. The pressure gradient will begin to tighten tonight and Monday ahead of the next cold front, with Small Craft Advisory level winds and seas possible Monday morning through Tuesday evening. High pressure then builds in from the north Wednesday and Thursday allowing conditions to improve under northeast winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 242 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 No humidity concerns, with a few showers possible today and Monday. High dispersion indices are possible on Monday, mainly over the Nature Coast counties. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 63 76 56 / 20 20 10 0 FMY 83 64 82 58 / 10 10 0 0 GIF 81 60 77 54 / 20 20 10 0 SRQ 80 64 77 57 / 10 20 10 0 BKV 79 54 74 47 / 20 20 10 0 SPG 77 65 74 60 / 20 20 10 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Fleming