842
FXUS62 KTBW 030906
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
506 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...
Issued at 440 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

A few clouds and as frontal boundary stalls across south Florida
as upper level trough remains along the Eastern Seaboard. Drier
air tries to make it south with higher moisture anticipated along
and south of the I-4 corridor through the period. Wherever the
moisture is available, that is where showers and storms will
develop. Afternoon temperatures during this time will be around 90
degrees with overnight lows ranging from the upper 60s north to
mid 70s south.

On Thursday, similar conditions are expected with moisture staying
across southern portions of the state near aforementioned stationary
front. Troughiness is enhanced by Canadian low that pushes across
the Great Lakes early on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI-TUE)...
Issued at 440 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Going into the weekend, the U/L low finally slides out as high
pressure begins to build at the surface. Periods of showers and
storms will be determined by the moisture availability. Areas
along the Nature Coast will likely not have much coverage, while
area south of Tampa Bay could see more activity during on Friday
and through the weekend.

In terms of temperatures, conditions should remain on the warm
and humid with highs in the low 90s area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

VFR conditions anticipated at most terminals overnight and into
the morning hours. Light showers over the water could bring
periods of light rain near SW FL TAF sites through the next few
hours, but most areas should remain dry. Moisture increases through
the day increasing rain chances, however, pockets of drier
air could limit development during the afternoon. Less confidence
on how much and where storms will develop led to keeping a
combination of PROB30s near Tampa Bay sites and VCTS areas south.
Light east to northeasterly winds prevail before becoming west to
northwesterly in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 440 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

A stalled front remains across south and central gulf waters.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers and storms
will be possible through the week. Light winds around 10 knots or
less and seas 2 feet or less will prevail outside of thunderstorms
through the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 440 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Multiple disturbances will pull higher moisture across fire districts
through the period. Northeasterly prevail today and become east to
southeasterly towards the end of the week. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms could develop with the highest chances expected
south of the I-4 corridor. Minimum RH values remain well above
critical levels as daily rain chances continue during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  77  91  78 /  30  20  50  20
FMY  91  76  89  76 /  60  50  70  50
GIF  92  75  92  75 /  40  20  60  10
SRQ  90  75  89  75 /  30  40  60  30
BKV  91  72  91  72 /  20  10  40  10
SPG  88  77  88  77 /  30  30  60  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce