835
FXUS62 KTBW 251838
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
238 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

An upper level low that you can see spinning off the southeast coast
of Florida will be pushing over the state through Friday. This will
cause cooler temperatures aloft. This will result in an increase
chance of stronger storms through Friday with the main hazards being
hail and high winds. We will continue to see easterly flow both
today and Thursday resulting in storms along the west coast of
Florida in the late afternoon and evening hours. However as the low
pushes away on Friday winds will shift more southwesterly brining
for the focus of storms more towards inland locations and towards
the east coast.

By the weekend the upper level low will have pushed away and the
ridge will be south of the area. This will bring a more
southwesterly flow to the forecast resulting in the best chance of
storms being inland and along the east coast of the state. This
southwesterly flow looks to stick around for the early part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Easterly flow remains in place resulting in late afternoon and
evening storms for our aviation sites. Highest chance will be in
Southwest Florida where TEMPO groups were added for FMY and RSW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Winds will remain out of and easterly direction through
Thursday as an upper level low start to push through the state from
the Atlantic. As it does so it will enhance our convection and
bring some strong storms that are expected to push off the west
coast in the late afternoon and evening hours. By Friday and the
weekend winds will shift more southwesterly behind the upper level
low. This will result in showers more in the overnight and early
morning hours before storms start to push towards the east coast.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a
minimum.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  91  77  91 /  30  70  50  70
FMY  74  90  75  93 /  40  70  50  70
GIF  74  93  74  92 /  10  80  30  70
SRQ  74  90  74  91 /  40  60  50  70
BKV  71  93  71  92 /  30  60  40  70
SPG  78  90  77  88 /  40  60  50  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Davis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis