Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
341 FXUS62 KTBW 141212 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 812 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Surface high pressure will hold over the region today with continued clear skies. Temperatures will start the day on the cool side north with temps around sunrise in the mid to upper 50s across the nature coast...with mid to upper 60s central and south. However, daytime temperatures will quickly recover with afternoon highs generally in the upper 80s across the region. A weak backdoor cold front will move onshore the east coast of Florida on Wednesday. Although conditions will generally be dry as the system will have little moisture to work with, can`t rule out a light sprinkle...especially over the interior. High pressure surface and aloft will build over the region late in the week with clear skies and daytime highs a few degrees above climatic normals. Over the weekend, surface high pressure will move off the mid Atlantic coast which will cause boundary layer winds to veer to the east and southeast. This will allow L/L moisture to recover with dew points climbing into the 60s to around 70. A cold front will push across north Florida on Sunday and the Florida peninsula Sunday night with an increasing chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Surface high pressure will build back over west central and southwest Florida early next week in the wake of the front with drier air advecting across the region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 809 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 VFR conditions through the period with winds mainly out of a northerly direction. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 High pressure will hold over the waters through the period. Winds will be below cautionary levels today and Wednesday. Tightening of the gradient Wednesday night and Thursday night may cause a period of cautionary level winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 68 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 88 67 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 87 65 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 87 66 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 86 60 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 85 70 84 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Close UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close