548
FXUS62 KTBW 160753
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
353 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Ridging to our north will continue through our work week. This will
allow for our southeasterly winds to continue keeping us in a regime
6. This regime normally favors storms on the west coast of Florida
in the late afternoon and evening hours. The main difference during
the week will be some drier air filter into the area. This will
bring PWs down closer to 1.5. This will result in some lower PoPs
compared to what we saw late last week with the southeasterly winds.

As we head into next weekend the ridge looks to shift a little
closer to use and shift our winds more northeasterly. This regime
typically gives us lower rain shower chances with the best chance
being in southwest Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR conditions through the period with south to southeasterly
flow. VCTS will be possible once again mainly in the evening
hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025
South to southeasterly winds around 5 to 10 knots will
prevail for much of our work week as ridging stays to our north.
Best chance of showers and storms over the Gulf will be in the
evening and overnight hours as storms start to move off the land.
Winds will shift more northeasterly on Friday as the ridge shift a
little closer to Florida.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire dangers at
a minimum.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  93  79 /  70  40  40  40
FMY  93  75  94  76 /  50  40  40  40
GIF  94  76  95  76 /  60  20  40  20
SRQ  91  76  92  77 /  50  40  40  40
BKV  92  72  94  72 /  70  30  40  30
SPG  90  79  90  79 /  60  40  40  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley