095
FXUS62 KTBW 031807
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
207 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

The hot and humid conditions continue today. As the same set up
remains over the area. A stalled front over North Florida will keep
the greatest rain chances north of the nature coast. A little bit of
dry air in the mid levels today will limit rain chances for this
afternoon. However, isolated showers have popped up just east of the
coast and more could develop further inland later this afternoon
into the evening. Looking into the start of the week, more of the
same continues. A little Saharan Dust may mix in over our area as
the flow becomes more SE through the week, which will act to limit
rain chances. However, the SAL will not be the only determining
factor when it comes to rainfall throughout the week. A frontal
boundary will also linger over the state, adding moisture. It will
be a battle this week to see which air mass wins out. Overall, it
will continue to be warm and rather humid with the possibility of
relief if afternoon thunderstorms are able to develop.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 204 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

VFR conditions prevail. SW flow becomes more light and variable
overnight before turning onshore once again tomorrow mid morning.
Most shower activity has started firing up away from terminals,
however areas inland and in SWFL, could still have some showers
develop nearby. Tomorrow showers and storms have a chance of
developing over the waters in the morning and some may hold
together to make it near coastal sites. Once again, the bulk of
convection will trend more inland in the afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

No marine concerns for most of the week as the flow remains below
10kts. Some showers and thunderstorms could develop over the water
in the morning and could possibly contain some stronger gusts, and
lightning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Fire weather concerns remain minimal as ample moisture remains and
winds continue to be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  93  81  92 /  20  60  40  50
FMY  79  94  78  95 /  20  60  30  50
GIF  78  95  77  95 /  20  60  20  60
SRQ  79  92  78  92 /  20  50  40  40
BKV  74  93  74  93 /  10  60  40  50
SPG  82  90  81  90 /  20  50  40  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle