


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
900 FXUS62 KTBW 161749 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 149 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .DISCUSSION... A southeast/south low-level flow is in place across the local area this afternoon as low pressure (AL93) moves westward along the northern Gulf coast region. Showers and storms have been ongoing over the Gulf since this morning and these should increase in coverage across inland areas through the rest of the afternoon and evening. This flow pattern continues Thursday, though moisture looks to be higher and thus would favor higher overall storm coverage. A more typical summer pattern returns starting Friday and continuing into next week as ridging builds back in over the area. Looks like some relatively drier air moves in through the weekend, decreasing rain chances a bit, but still enough for storms each day, then some models are showing a larger increase in moisture early next week which would suggest another couple of heavy-rain-threat days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Scattered thunderstorms are developing across the region and could affect any terminals through the afternoon and evening and will keep TEMPO groups in place to account for this. A quiet overnight is expected, then storm coverage is expected to be higher for tomorrow afternoon/evening. && .MARINE... Southeast to south winds will continue over the waters through the next few days, approaching cautionary levels this afternoon and tonight, but otherwise staying below headlines. Daily showers and storms are expected, with locally higher winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Warm and humid summertime conditions will continue, with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 92 79 94 / 20 70 30 50 FMY 76 93 77 95 / 20 80 20 60 GIF 76 94 77 96 / 20 70 10 50 SRQ 76 92 76 94 / 20 60 30 50 BKV 72 93 73 94 / 20 70 20 50 SPG 78 89 79 91 / 30 60 40 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$