148
FNUS72 KTBW 161138
FWSTBW

Spot Forecast for Duette Prescribed Fire...Manatee County
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
738 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on June 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (813) 645-2323 if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Weak high pressure remains in control across the region with light
southerly winds this morning and shifting to the southwest later
today as the sea breeze pushes inland. There is also enough
lingering moisture in place to support the potential of scattered
showers and storms today with highest rain chances generally
expected from around 4 PM through 8 PM. Otherwise, fair dispersion
conditions are expected with good mixing heights over 5000 ft,
particularly before the onset of precipitation occurs later
today.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and early afternoon, then shifting
                    to the southwest around 7 mph late in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Dispersion index....14 increasing to 31 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 44 in the afternoon decreasing to
                    34 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      4 AM   6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON
Sky (%).........31     26     25     31     40
Weather cov.....                     CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     30     40
Temp............77     83     88     93     91
RH..............92     78     66     53     56
20 ft wind......SE 3   SE 6   S 7    S 7    SW 7
20 ft wind gust.8      9      9      9      10
Mix hgt (ft)....1100   2600   4200   5300   5500
Transport wind..SE 7   S 8    SE 8   SE 8   S 7
Dispersion idx..10     27     42     47     41
LVORI...........6      3      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening and
                    overnight.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 73.
Max humidity........99 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening and
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 8 mph shifting to the east 3 to 5 mph
                    overnight, then shifting to the southeast 3 to
                    6 mph after 3 am.
Dispersion index....23 decreasing to 2.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM
Sky (%).........50  45  30  32  36  42  39  37  28  30  25  25
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50  50  30  30  30  30  30  30  10  10  10  10
Temp............89  86  84  82  80  79  77  76  75  75  74  73
RH..............61  68  74  77  82  86  89  91  95  95  96  99
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   W   W   SE  SE  E   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   5   5   3   2   2   2   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.9   9   9   7   6   6   5   6   7   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   W   SW  NE  E   E   SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.6   7   8   7   6   5   5   5   3   3   3   6
Dispersion idx..23  12  4   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   3
LVORI...........2   2   3   5   6   6   6   7   7   8   8   7

$$
Forecaster...Giarratana
Requested by...Jerry Miller
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2516035.0/TBW
.DELDT 06/16/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jerry.miller@mymanatee.org