111
FNUS72 KTBW 171142
FWSTBW

Spot Forecast for ASP 9a...CELM
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
742 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on June 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (813) 645-2323 if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Drier air remains in place across the region keeping lower rain
chances at the site today. Moisture should increase slightly on
Wednesday, which should support more storm coverage. Southeasterly
winds prevail and under this flow showers and storms develop later
in the afternoon and evening. Humidity remains above critical values.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 9 mph.
Dispersion index....9 increasing to 48.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........16     11     13     35     47
Weather cov.....                            S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      10     20
Temp............78     84     88     92     94
RH..............90     74     61     52     48
20 ft wind......SE 3   SE 6   SE 7   SE 7   S 7
20 ft wind gust.7      9      10     12     12
Mix hgt (ft)....1100   2700   4300   5800   6100
Transport wind..S 7    S 9    S 8    SE 7   S 7
Dispersion idx..9      31     45     47     50
LVORI...........5      3      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 6 mph shifting to the west 5 to 8
                    mph in the evening, then shifting to the east 3
                    to 5 mph late in the evening shifting to the
                    southeast 5 to 6 mph overnight.
Dispersion index....34 decreasing to 3.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........55     58     60     51     41     42
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30     20     20     20     0      0
Temp............90     85     81     78     76     75
RH..............55     69     78     86     91     94
20 ft wind......S 6    S 5    SE 3   SE 3   E 3    SE 3
20 ft wind gust.10     9      7      6      7      7
Mix hgt (ft)....4800   1000   600    400    400    400
Transport wind..S 6    W 8    NW 5   E 3    S 5    SE 6
Dispersion idx..34     5      1      2      2      2
LVORI...........1      3      4      6      7      6

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers early in the morning. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the morning, then chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 96.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph early
                    in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......6100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 8 mph.
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 17 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 29 late in the morning increasing
                    to 43 late in the morning decreasing to 37.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........38     37     28     34     43     48
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      20     20     20     40     40
Temp............75     76     84     90     92     93
RH..............91     93     79     64     58     55
20 ft wind......SE 3   SE 5   SE 6   SE 7   SE 7   S 7
20 ft wind gust.7      7      9      10     12     12
Mix hgt (ft)....400    700    2600   4800   6100   5800
Transport wind..SE 7   SE 7   SE 8   SE 8   SE 7   S 6
Dispersion idx..2      7      29     45     47     43
LVORI...........6      6      3      1      1      1

$$
Forecaster...Flannery
Requested by...Nick Alfano
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2516103.0/TBW
.DELDT 06/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL alfanon@hillsboroughcounty.org