515
FNUS72 KTBW 170942
FWSTBW

Spot Forecast for Emerson Preserve...Manatee County
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
542 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on July 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (813) 645-2323 if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Minimal fire concerns expected as abundant moisture remains across
the state, with minimum RH values remaining comfortably above
critical thresholds and south to southeast flow favoring scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing during the morning before
becoming more numerous in the afternoon, then diminishing in the
evening.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Scattered showers
                    in the morning. Scattered thunderstorms through
                    the day. Numerous showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 14 mph shifting to the
                    south 12 to 13 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph shifting to the south 12
                    to 13 mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....16 increasing to 33 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 42 late in the morning decreasing
                    to 30 late in the afternoon decreasing to 21.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........5      11     14     21     36     49
Weather cov.....       ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD NUMRUS NUMRUS
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).10     20     20     40     70     70
Temp............79     81     85     89     89     88
RH..............89     85     74     66     64     66
20 ft wind......SE 14  SE 14  SE 13  S 12   S 13   S 12
20 ft wind gust.17     16     16     15     15     14
Mix hgt (ft)....900    1100   2200   3200   2800   1900
Transport wind..SE 14  SE 14  S 15   S 14   S 13   S 12
Dispersion idx..12     19     37     45     38     27
LVORI...........5      4      3      1      2      3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Numerous showers
                    early in the evening. Scattered thunderstorms
                    in the evening. Scattered showers early in the
                    evening.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 79.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 10 mph shifting to the east 8
                    to 12 mph in the late evening and overnight.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 10 mph shifting to the east 8 to 13
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Dispersion index....12 decreasing to 7 in the late evening and
                    overnight.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........65     74     69     53     42     31
Weather cov.....NUMRUS SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).60     40     40     10     10     10
Temp............87     84     83     82     80     80
RH..............67     74     77     78     83     85
20 ft wind......S 10   SE 8   E 8    E 9    E 10   E 10
20 ft wind gust.13     10     10     12     13     14
Mix hgt (ft)....1500   1500   1000   900    900    900
Transport wind..S 10   S 8    E 8    E 9    E 10   E 10
Dispersion idx..16     7      5      7      8      8
LVORI...........3      3      4      4      5      5

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the morning.
                    Scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 9 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    south around 9 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the morning.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 14 mph shifting to the southwest
                    late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....16 increasing to 30 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 31 in the afternoon decreasing to
                    22 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........37     33     32     34     32     37
Weather cov.....       ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).10     20     20     20     30     30
Temp............80     81     85     88     90     89
RH..............87     87     76     67     63     64
20 ft wind......E 12   SE 12  SE 12  SE 10  S 9    SW 9
20 ft wind gust.14     14     14     13     12     12
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   1100   1900   2600   2800   2200
Transport wind..E 12   SE 14  SE 13  SE 10  SE 9   SW 9
Dispersion idx..12     20     31     35     31     26
LVORI...........5      4      3      3      2      3

$$
Forecaster...Hurt
Requested by...Molly DuVall
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2518154.0/TBW
.DELDT 07/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Molly.DuVall@MyManatee.org