085
FXXX10 KWNP 151231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jul 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 15-Jul 17 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 15-Jul 17 2025

             Jul 15       Jul 16       Jul 17
00-03UT       4.00         4.00         3.00
03-06UT       4.33         3.67         2.67
06-09UT       5.00 (G1)    3.00         2.00
09-12UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         1.67
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    2.33         2.00
15-18UT       2.67         2.00         2.00
18-21UT       2.33         2.33         1.67
21-00UT       3.67         2.67         2.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected on 15 Jul due to
persistent CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 15-Jul 17 2025

              Jul 15  Jul 16  Jul 17
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 15-Jul 17 2025

              Jul 15        Jul 16        Jul 17
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with an increased chance
for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 15-17 Jul.