312
FXXX10 KWNP 221231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jan 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 22-Jan 24 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 22-Jan 24 2026

             Jan 22       Jan 23       Jan 24
00-03UT       4.33         3.33         3.00
03-06UT       3.33         3.67         2.67
06-09UT       2.67         2.67         2.00
09-12UT       2.33         2.33         1.67
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    2.33         2.00
15-18UT       3.33         3.00         2.33
18-21UT       2.67         3.00         2.33
21-00UT       2.67         3.33         2.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are possible on 22 Jan due to
lingering traces of the 19 Jan CME interacting with continuing CH HSS
influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 22-Jan 24 2026

              Jan 22  Jan 23  Jan 24
S1 or greater   45%     15%     15%

Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation
storms on 22 Jan due to elevated flux levels still recovering from the
19 Jan S4 event, dropping to a slight chance on 23-24 Jan.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 22-Jan 24 2026

              Jan 22        Jan 23        Jan 24
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong) events, on 22-24 Jan.