289
FXXX10 KWNP 161231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jul 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 16-Jul 18 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 16-Jul 18 2025

             Jul 16       Jul 17       Jul 18
00-03UT       3.00         3.00         3.00
03-06UT       3.00         2.67         2.67
06-09UT       2.67         2.00         2.33
09-12UT       3.67         1.67         1.67
12-15UT       2.67         2.00         1.33
15-18UT       2.00         2.00         1.33
18-21UT       2.33         1.67         1.67
21-00UT       2.67         2.00         2.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 16-Jul 18 2025

              Jul 16  Jul 17  Jul 18
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 16-Jul 18 2025

              Jul 16        Jul 17        Jul 18
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with moderate levels
likely (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 16-18 Jul due to the flare potential
of Regions 4139, 4142, and 4143.