965
FXXX10 KWNP 041231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Oct 04 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 04-Oct 06 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 04-Oct 06 2025

             Oct 04       Oct 05       Oct 06
00-03UT       3.67         3.67         3.33
03-06UT       3.67         3.67         3.67
06-09UT       4.00         3.33         3.33
09-12UT       3.67         3.00         3.00
12-15UT       3.00         3.00         2.33
15-18UT       2.00         3.00         2.00
18-21UT       3.00         3.33         3.00
21-00UT       3.00         3.00         3.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 04-Oct 06 2025

              Oct 04  Oct 05  Oct 06
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 03 2025 1436 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 04-Oct 06 2025

              Oct 04        Oct 05        Oct 06
R1-R2           60%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   15%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event, on 04-06 Oct.