618
FXXX10 KWNP 050031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 May 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 05-May 07 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 05-May 07 2026

             May 05       May 06       May 07
00-03UT       5.33 (G1)    2.67         3.33
03-06UT       5.67 (G2)    2.33         3.67
06-09UT       5.00 (G1)    2.00         3.00
09-12UT       4.00         1.33         2.33
12-15UT       3.00         1.67         2.33
15-18UT       2.33         2.33         3.33
18-21UT       2.00         2.00         3.33
21-00UT       2.67         2.67         3.67

Rationale: Isolated G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming periods are possible
early on 05 May as CME/CH HSS effects persist.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 05-May 07 2026

              May 05  May 06  May 07
S1 or greater    5%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 04 2026 0133 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 05-May 07 2026

              May 05        May 06        May 07
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 05-07 May, primarily due to the flare potential of Region
4429.