101
FXXX10 KWNP 201231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Feb 20 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 20-Feb 22 2026 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 20-Feb 22 2026

             Feb 20       Feb 21       Feb 22
00-03UT       1.00         2.33         1.67
03-06UT       2.67         1.67         1.33
06-09UT       2.33         1.33         1.33
09-12UT       2.33         0.67         1.33
12-15UT       1.33         1.00         1.67
15-18UT       2.33         0.67         1.33
18-21UT       2.67         1.33         1.33
21-00UT       3.00         2.00         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 20-Feb 22 2026

              Feb 20  Feb 21  Feb 22
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 20-Feb 22 2026

              Feb 20        Feb 21        Feb 22
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 22 Feb.