746
FXXX10 KWNP 151231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 15-Aug 17 2026 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 15-Aug 17 2026

             Aug 15       Aug 16       Aug 17
00-03UT       1.33         2.33         1.67
03-06UT       1.67         2.00         2.33
06-09UT       0.33         2.67         2.00
09-12UT       1.33         2.33         2.33
12-15UT       2.33         2.33         2.33
15-18UT       2.67         2.33         2.33
18-21UT       3.00         2.33         2.33
21-00UT       3.00         2.67         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 15-Aug 17 2026

              Aug 15  Aug 16  Aug 17
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 15-Aug 17 2026

              Aug 15        Aug 16        Aug 17
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 15-17 Aug.