260
FXXX10 KWNP 011231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Oct 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 01-Oct 03 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 01-Oct 03 2026

             Oct 01       Oct 02       Oct 03
00-03UT       0.33         2.33         3.67
03-06UT       0.33         2.67         2.00
06-09UT       0.67         2.67         2.00
09-12UT       1.00         3.33         3.00
12-15UT       1.33         3.67         3.00
15-18UT       1.33         4.67 (G1)    3.33
18-21UT       1.67         4.00         3.33
21-00UT       1.67         3.33         3.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 02 Oct due to the
anticipated arrival of 28 Sep CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 01-Oct 03 2026

              Oct 01  Oct 02  Oct 03
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 01-Oct 03 2026

              Oct 01        Oct 02        Oct 03
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts on 01-03 Oct.