679
FXXX10 KWNP 171231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 17 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 17-Nov 19 2025

             Nov 17       Nov 18       Nov 19
00-03UT       4.00         3.00         2.67
03-06UT       3.00         3.67         2.00
06-09UT       2.67         3.00         2.33
09-12UT       1.33         2.67         2.33
12-15UT       4.00         2.33         2.33
15-18UT       3.00         2.33         2.33
18-21UT       3.67         2.33         2.33
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    2.00         2.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are possible on 17
Nov due to coronal hole influence.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025

              Nov 17  Nov 18  Nov 19
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025

              Nov 17        Nov 18        Nov 19
R1-R2           15%           15%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 17-19 Nov.