051
FXXX10 KWNP 041231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Oct 04 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 04-Oct 06 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 04-Oct 06 2026

             Oct 04       Oct 05       Oct 06
00-03UT       3.00         3.33         3.33
03-06UT       3.33         4.33         3.67
06-09UT       4.33         3.33         3.00
09-12UT       5.00 (G1)    3.00         3.00
12-15UT       4.00         2.67         2.33
15-18UT       3.67         1.67         2.00
18-21UT       4.67 (G1)    2.00         2.00
21-00UT       3.00         3.00         1.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 04 Oct due to
influence from a positive polarity coronal hole.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 04-Oct 06 2026

              Oct 04  Oct 05  Oct 06
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 04-Oct 06 2026

              Oct 04        Oct 05        Oct 06
R1-R2            5%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.