411
FXXX10 KWNP 220031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jan 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 22-Jan 24 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 22-Jan 24 2026

             Jan 22       Jan 23       Jan 24
00-03UT       3.67         3.33         3.00
03-06UT       4.67 (G1)    3.67         2.67
06-09UT       4.00         2.67         2.00
09-12UT       3.67         2.33         1.67
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    2.33         2.00
15-18UT       3.33         3.00         2.33
18-21UT       2.67         3.00         2.33
21-00UT       2.67         3.33         2.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 22 Jan due to
CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 22-Jan 24 2026

              Jan 22  Jan 23  Jan 24
S1 or greater   45%     15%     15%

Rationale: There is a decreasing chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms through 24 Jan.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 21 2026 0712 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 22-Jan 24 2026

              Jan 22        Jan 23        Jan 24
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 (Strong) events, on 22-24 Jan.