Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
420
FXXX10 KWNP 051231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 05 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 05-Nov 07 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 05-Nov 07 2025
Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov 07
00-03UT 4.00 2.33 5.00 (G1)
03-06UT 3.33 3.00 4.67 (G1)
06-09UT 4.33 3.00 4.00
09-12UT 2.33 3.00 3.33
12-15UT 3.00 3.00 3.00
15-18UT 2.33 3.33 2.67
18-21UT 2.67 3.33 2.67
21-00UT 2.67 4.67 (G1) 3.67
Rationale: G1 (Minor) with a slight chance for G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic
storm conditions are likely on 06-07 Nov due to CH HSS activity coupled
with a possible glancing blow from the 03-04 Nov CMEs.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 05-Nov 07 2025
Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov 07
S1 or greater 25% 25% 25%
Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
reaching the S1 (Minor) threshold on 05-07 Nov due to the flare
potential of Region 4274.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 04 2025 1734 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 05-Nov 07 2025
Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov 07
R1-R2 70% 70% 70%
R3 or greater 25% 25% 25%
Rationale: Probabilities have increased to 70% for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) and 25% for R3 (Strong) due to the continued activity
and complex structure of Region 4274.