750
FXXX10 KWNP 151231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jun 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 15-Jun 17 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 15-Jun 17 2024

             Jun 15       Jun 16       Jun 17
00-03UT       2.33         4.00         1.67
03-06UT       2.00         3.67         1.67
06-09UT       2.00         3.33         2.00
09-12UT       2.67         3.33         2.00
12-15UT       3.67         2.33         2.33
15-18UT       3.67         2.33         2.00
18-21UT       3.67         2.00         2.33
21-00UT       2.67         2.00         3.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 15-Jun 17 2024

              Jun 15  Jun 16  Jun 17
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storms over 15-17
Jun.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 15 2024 0627 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 15-Jun 17 2024

              Jun 15        Jun 16        Jun 17
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 15-17 Jun.