582
FXXX10 KWNP 210031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Feb 21 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 21-Feb 23 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 21-Feb 23 2026

             Feb 21       Feb 22       Feb 23
00-03UT       2.67         1.67         2.33
03-06UT       3.00         1.33         2.00
06-09UT       2.33         1.33         2.33
09-12UT       3.67         1.33         2.33
12-15UT       2.00         1.67         2.33
15-18UT       1.67         1.33         3.33
18-21UT       0.67         1.33         3.67
21-00UT       0.67         1.67         4.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 21-Feb 23 2026

              Feb 21  Feb 22  Feb 23
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 21-Feb 23 2026

              Feb 21        Feb 22        Feb 23
R1-R2           10%           10%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 21-23 Feb.