507
FXXX10 KWNP 151231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 15-Jul 17 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 15-Jul 17 2026

             Jul 15       Jul 16       Jul 17
00-03UT       3.00         3.00         2.67
03-06UT       3.67         2.33         2.33
06-09UT       3.33         2.00         2.00
09-12UT       3.00         2.33         1.33
12-15UT       2.33         1.33         1.33
15-18UT       1.67         2.00         1.67
18-21UT       2.00         2.00         2.00
21-00UT       2.67         2.00         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 15-Jul 17 2026

              Jul 15  Jul 16  Jul 17
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 15-Jul 17 2026

              Jul 15        Jul 16        Jul 17
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: A slight chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts will persist through 17 Jul primarily due to returning active
regions on the eastern limb.