Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
985
FXXX10 KWNP 110031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 11 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 11-Nov 13 2025 is 7.33 (NOAA Scale
G3).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 11-Nov 13 2025
Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13
00-03UT 2.67 5.00 (G1) 4.33
03-06UT 3.00 7.33 (G3) 4.67 (G1)
06-09UT 2.67 6.00 (G2) 4.00
09-12UT 3.67 4.67 (G1) 3.67
12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 4.33 3.33
15-18UT 5.00 (G1) 3.33 2.67
18-21UT 5.67 (G2) 3.33 2.67
21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 4.00 3.00
Rationale: Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are
likely on 11-13 Nov in response to the anticipated arrival of the 09 Nov
and 10 Nov asymmetric halo CME.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 11-Nov 13 2025
Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13
S1 or greater 99% 50% 35%
Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux to is expected to
continue at S1 (Minor) storm levels on 11 Nov following the X1.2 flare
from Region 4274. There is a chance for S1 (Minor) storm levels on
12-13 Nov due to the flare potential and location of Region 4274.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 10 2025 0919 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 11-Nov 13 2025
Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13
R1-R2 75% 75% 75%
R3 or greater 35% 35% 35%
Rationale: R1/R2 (Minor/Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event on 11-13 Nov.