516
FXXX10 KWNP 291231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jan 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 29-Jan 31 2026 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 29-Jan 31 2026

             Jan 29       Jan 30       Jan 31
00-03UT       4.33         2.67         2.67
03-06UT       3.33         2.67         2.67
06-09UT       2.33         2.33         2.00
09-12UT       3.67         2.33         2.00
12-15UT       4.00         2.33         1.67
15-18UT       3.00         2.33         1.33
18-21UT       3.00         2.00         2.00
21-00UT       3.67         2.33         2.33

Rationale: Unsettled to active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor)
storm levels, are expected for the rest of the UTC day on 29 Jan due to
CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 29-Jan 31 2026

              Jan 29  Jan 30  Jan 31
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 29-Jan 31 2026

              Jan 29        Jan 30        Jan 31
R1-R2           15%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 31 Jan.