073
FXXX10 KWNP 111231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 11 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 11-Nov 13 2025 is 7.33 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 11-Nov 13 2025

             Nov 11       Nov 12       Nov 13
00-03UT       2.33         5.00 (G1)    4.33
03-06UT       2.67         7.33 (G3)    4.67 (G1)
06-09UT       1.67         6.00 (G2)    4.00
09-12UT       2.33         4.67 (G1)    3.67
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    4.33         3.33
15-18UT       5.00 (G1)    3.33         2.67
18-21UT       5.67 (G2)    3.33         2.67
21-00UT       5.67 (G2)    4.00         3.00

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels are likely by late on 11 Nov
with the arrival of the 09 Nov CME. G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) levels are
likely on 12 Nov with the arrival of the 10 Nov CME. Unsettled to G1
(Minor) storming is likely on 13 Nov as conditions slowly diminish.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 11-Nov 13 2025

              Nov 11  Nov 12  Nov 13
S1 or greater   99%     75%     65%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
above the S1 (Minor) threshold through 12 Nov, with S2 levels possible
through 11 Nov. Levels should begin to decrease later on 11 Nov but
remain above S1 levels through 12 Nov. Further enhancements are possible
with the arrival of the 09-10 CMEs on 11 and 12 Nov.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 11 2025 1004 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 11-Nov 13 2025

              Nov 11        Nov 12        Nov 13
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   35%           35%           35%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for further R3 (Strong) activity on 11-13 Nov due to the
flare potential of Region 4274.