882
FXXX10 KWNP 141231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jul 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 14-Jul 16 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 14-Jul 16 2025

             Jul 14       Jul 15       Jul 16
00-03UT       2.00         2.67         2.67
03-06UT       2.67         3.00         3.00
06-09UT       3.00         2.67         2.67
09-12UT       1.67         2.67         2.33
12-15UT       2.67         2.33         2.33
15-18UT       1.67         1.00         2.00
18-21UT       3.67         1.00         1.00
21-00UT       2.67         2.33         2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 14-Jul 16 2025

              Jul 14  Jul 15  Jul 16
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 14-Jul 16 2025

              Jul 14        Jul 15        Jul 16
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely 14-16 Jul.