353
FXXX10 KWNP 020031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Oct 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 02-Oct 04 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 02-Oct 04 2026

             Oct 02       Oct 03       Oct 04
00-03UT       0.67         3.67         3.67
03-06UT       1.33         3.00         3.67
06-09UT       1.33         2.67         2.67
09-12UT       3.00         1.67         2.67
12-15UT       4.33         1.67         2.67
15-18UT       3.67         2.67         3.67
18-21UT       4.67 (G1)    3.67         4.67 (G1)
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    3.67         3.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 02 Oct due to
glancing coronal mass ejection influences from a filament eruption that
left the Sun on 28 Sep. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely again
on 04 Oct under positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream
effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 02-Oct 04 2026

              Oct 02  Oct 03  Oct 04
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 02-Oct 04 2026

              Oct 02        Oct 03        Oct 04
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
due to isolated M-class flare activity will persist through 04 Oct.