048
FXXX10 KWNP 050031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 05-Aug 07 2026 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 05-Aug 07 2026

             Aug 05       Aug 06       Aug 07
00-03UT       1.33         1.33         3.00
03-06UT       1.33         1.67         2.00
06-09UT       1.33         1.67         2.00
09-12UT       1.67         1.33         2.67
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         2.67
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         2.67
18-21UT       1.67         1.33         2.67
21-00UT       1.67         1.67         3.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 05-Aug 07 2026

              Aug 05  Aug 06  Aug 07
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 05-Aug 07 2026

              Aug 05        Aug 06        Aug 07
R1-R2           20%           20%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
flares 05-07 Aug, primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 4498,
4499, and 4502.