807
FXXX10 KWNP 101231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 10 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 10-Nov 12 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 10-Nov 12 2025

             Nov 10       Nov 11       Nov 12
00-03UT       3.00         2.67         5.67 (G2)
03-06UT       2.00         3.00         4.67 (G1)
06-09UT       1.33         2.67         4.00
09-12UT       2.33         3.67         3.67
12-15UT       2.00         4.67 (G1)    2.67
15-18UT       3.00         5.00 (G1)    2.67
18-21UT       3.00         5.67 (G2)    1.67
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    5.67 (G2)    2.67

Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are likely on 10
Nov due to possible CME enhancements as the 07 Nov CME passes in close
proximity to Earth. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic
storming are likely on 11-12 Nov in response to the anticipated arrival
of the 09 Nov asymmetric halo CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 10-Nov 12 2025

              Nov 10  Nov 11  Nov 12
S1 or greater   99%     80%     35%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux to is expected to
continue at S1 (Minor) storm levels on 10-11 Nov following the X1.2
flare from Region 4274. There is a chance for S1 (Minor) storm levels on
12 Nov due to the flare potential and location of Region 4274.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 10 2025 0919 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 10-Nov 12 2025

              Nov 10        Nov 11        Nov 12
R1-R2           70%           70%           70%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: R1/R2 (Minor/Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event on 10-12 Nov.