Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
977
FXXX10 KWNP 151231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 15-Nov 17 2025
Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17
00-03UT 1.67 2.00 3.67
03-06UT 1.33 1.67 4.67 (G1)
06-09UT 2.00 1.33 4.00
09-12UT 1.67 1.33 3.67
12-15UT 2.00 2.00 3.33
15-18UT 3.00 3.33 3.33
18-21UT 2.33 4.00 3.00
21-00UT 2.00 5.00 (G1) 3.00
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 16-17 Nov due
to the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025
Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17
S1 or greater 20% 15% 10%
Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms over 15-17 Nov due to the eruptive potential from
Region 4274.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 14 2025 2012 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 15-Nov 17 2025
Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17
R1-R2 70% 60% 55%
R3 or greater 30% 25% 25%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
chance for R3 (Strong), over 15-17 Nov due to the flare potential from
Region 4274.