Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
359
FXXX10 KWNP 120031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 May 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 12-May 14 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 12-May 14 2026
May 12 May 13 May 14
00-03UT 3.00 3.33 3.00
03-06UT 2.00 3.33 3.00
06-09UT 2.00 2.00 2.33
09-12UT 2.67 3.00 2.00
12-15UT 2.67 3.00 1.67
15-18UT 2.67 2.00 2.00
18-21UT 2.67 3.67 2.67
21-00UT 3.67 3.33 2.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 12-May 14 2026
May 12 May 13 May 14
S1 or greater 10% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms on 12 May due to the potential from Region 4432.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 12-May 14 2026
May 12 May 13 May 14
R1-R2 45% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 10% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
through 14 May. A slight chance exists for an R3 (Strong) or greater
radio blackout on 12 May. All mostly due to the complexity of Regions
4432 and 4436.