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Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
461 FXXX10 KWNP 071231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Sep 07 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 07-Sep 09 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 07-Sep 09 2024 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep 09 00-03UT 2.67 2.00 2.67 03-06UT 2.00 2.00 2.33 06-09UT 1.67 2.00 2.33 09-12UT 1.67 2.00 2.33 12-15UT 1.33 2.67 2.00 15-18UT 1.33 2.67 2.33 18-21UT 1.33 3.00 2.33 21-00UT 1.67 3.00 2.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 07-Sep 09 2024 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep 09 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms all three days. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Sep 07 2024 0747 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 07-Sep 09 2024 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep 09 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 or greater events, over 07-09 Sep.