185
FXXX10 KWNP 121231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 8.67 (NOAA
Scale G4).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025 is 8.67 (NOAA Scale
G4).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 12-Nov 14 2025

             Nov 12       Nov 13       Nov 14
00-03UT       8.67 (G4)    6.67 (G3)    4.67 (G1)
03-06UT       8.33 (G4)    6.33 (G2)    4.00
06-09UT       7.00 (G3)    6.00 (G2)    3.33
09-12UT       7.00 (G3)    4.67 (G1)    3.67
12-15UT       6.00 (G2)    4.00         3.33
15-18UT       5.67 (G2)    3.33         3.00
18-21UT       7.67 (G4)    4.33         3.00
21-00UT       6.00 (G2)    4.67 (G1)    3.33

Rationale: Up to G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storms are expected on 12 Nov
due to CME influences. G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely on 13
Nov and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 14 Nov due to CME
effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025

              Nov 12  Nov 13  Nov 14
S1 or greater   99%     75%     55%

Rationale: S1-S2 (Minor to Moderate) or greater solar radiation storms
are expected over 12-14 Nov.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025

              Nov 12        Nov 13        Nov 14
R1-R2           80%           80%           80%
R3 or greater   55%           55%           55%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected and R3
(Strong) radio blackouts are likely over 12-14 Nov.