Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
020
FXXX10 KWNP 210031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jun 21 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 21-Jun 23 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 21-Jun 23 2024
Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun 23
00-03UT 1.67 4.00 2.67
03-06UT 1.33 3.33 2.00
06-09UT 1.00 2.33 2.33
09-12UT 1.00 2.33 2.67
12-15UT 2.33 2.00 2.33
15-18UT 3.00 2.00 2.33
18-21UT 3.33 2.33 2.33
21-00UT 3.33 2.67 2.33
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 21-Jun 23 2024
Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun 23
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 20 2024 2316 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 21-Jun 23 2024
Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun 23
R1-R2 60% 60% 60%
R3 or greater 15% 15% 15%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely and there
is a slight chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts, over the next three
days due to the flare potential from multiple regions on the visible
disk.