120
FXUS65 KTFX 040250
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
750 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances of precipitation along the Continental Divide,
  with a few rounds spreading further east across the plains.

- Breezy winds return to Southwest MT Tuesday and Wednesday, with
  more widespread breezy to gusty winds Thursday and Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...

Moist westerly flow aloft will continue to support extensive
cloudiness over the next 24 hours. The dry boundary layer will
slowly moisten from top to bottom with sprinkles and flurries
transitioning to areas of light rain showers and mountain snow
later tonight into Tuesday thanks to a passing shortwave.
Appreciable mountain snow accumulations will generally be confined
to the higher terrain along the Rocky Mountain Front. Little
change was made to the previous forecast other than refreshing the
grids to better match current trends. - RCG

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 212 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Weak southwest flow aloft will bring in a more potent Pacific system
this afternoon through Tuesday. Precipitation will continue to
build in along the Rocky Mountain Front this afternoon and evening
as more moisture gets advected into the region. The bulk of the
precipitation will be along the Continental Divide/Rocky Mountain
Front, but light precipitation will extend further east across
the plains at times through Tuesday. Snow will generally stay in
the mountains, but temperatures dropping near or slightly below
freezing overnight can allow for some light snow along the
foothills. Though little to no snow accumulations are expected.
Temperatures along Marias Pass remains more marginal (hovering
just above/below freezing) throughout the period. This should
cause snow to struggle to accumulate initially, leaving most
impacts from the wet snow on non pavement surfaces.

Slight ridging follows behind this for Wednesday, but a trough
quickly building along the Pacific coast will bring another wave
of precipitation Wednesday morning ahead of the next robust wave.
This ridge breaks down late Wednesday night and will begin to
bring intermittent rounds of precipitation and breezy to gusty
winds through early Saturday morning. ~50kt 700mb winds with a
surface low followed by lee troughing and a pressure gradient
building along the Rocky Mountain Front will bring in windy
conditions. Winds pick up along the Rocky Mountain Front late
Wednesday night, but stronger winds look to hold off until early
Thursday morning. Daytime mixing will help spread breezy winds
further east across the North-Central MT plains Thursday. A
similar set up for windier conditions looks to come through again
during the day Friday with upper level winds moving in and a
pressure gradient strengthening behind a passing low pressure
system along the Rocky Mountain Front. Precipitation along the
mountains and lower elevations will also accompany these waves
through Saturday morning. However, moisture amounts and mountain
snow look to remain light overall.

Ensembles hint at some sort of ridging at the beginning of next
week. Though, the strength/amplitude/position of this ridge still
has variability. If the ridge axis is more overhead/a bit west,
then drier conditions will prevail. If the ridge is weaker or
further to the east causing more southwest flow aloft, then there
will be better chances for precipitation. -Wilson

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Snow Along the Continental Divide Tonight:

Nothing has changed too much in terms of the snow potential
overnight along the Continental Divide. Current temperatures
along Marias Pass are hovering just above freezing this afternoon.
Temperatures will drop to just below freezing Tuesday morning.
Although better moisture comes in later tonight, marginal
temperatures will make it so the road temperatures will be slower
to freeze. Snow will struggle to accumulate at first, keeping
impacts to roads on the lower end. Current thinking is up tp 3" of
wet/slushy accumulations along Marias Pass through Tuesday
morning. If roads freeze earlier and accumulate snow quicker, then
a Winter Weather Advisory may be warranted.

Winds Thursday and Friday:

Winds Thursday and Friday look to be a bit tricky along the Rocky
Mountain Front. 700mb winds of ~50kts, and a pressure gradient
developing behind a lee trough suggest the synoptic environment
can support some stronger winds Thursday morning. It seems to be
more of a borderline event for stronger sustained winds and gusts
(50% chance). I think timing of the wave will be key to how much
of these stronger winds aloft mixes down. If the synoptic
environment nudges towards the stronger winds then a High Wind
Watch may be needed down the line. Another area to watch will be
further east along the Hi-line in Blaine County, where a better
low level jet can mix down some gusty winds during the day.
The probability for 58 mph winds here for Thursday are a 30-40%
chance, so overall not too concerned but something to keep watch.
Everywhere else across the plains north of the I-90 corridor
generally has a 30-60% chance for 50 mph wind gusts.

Friday`s winds look similar in terms of probabilities but if the
later timing of the wave trends, then it may be easier to mix down
those stronger winds aloft. Winds across the plains look slightly
less than Thursdays, with up to a 30-70% chance for 45 mph wind
gusts. -Wilson


&&

.AVIATION...
04/00Z TAF Period

Moist westerly flow aloft will maintain abundant mid- and higher
level clouds for much of the period. Light precipitation
near the continental divide will spread east across portions of
north- central and southwest MT tonight through Tuesday morning.
This will lower cloud bases further and bring increased mountain
obscuration/instances of MVFR ceilings, mostly between 04/09 and
04/15Z. - RCG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  38  50  32  57 /  40  40  10   0
CTB  28  45  26  48 /  30  20   0  10
HLN  37  55  34  60 /  50  60  10  10
BZN  36  57  33  62 /  20  40  20   0
WYS  31  44  30  52 /  20  40  30  10
DLN  37  54  35  60 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  31  49  23  54 /  40  20   0  10
LWT  36  50  28  58 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls