100
FXUS65 KTFX 080610
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1210 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers will continue through the afternoon along the
  Rocky Mountain Front and across the Hi-Line.

- Warmer and drier on Wednesday and Thursday.

- Cooler and wetter conditions return on Friday and last through
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

A shortwave trough will make its way across the region through the
day continuing the chances for showers along the Rocky Mountain
Front and across the Hi-Line. There is a chance for some isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, although the threat for
severe weather is low.

By Wednesday, upper-level flow becomes a bit more zonal to
northwesterly, allowing for temperatures to warm up. This effect is
briefly enhanced on Thursday as weak transient ridging moves through
which will allow for lower elevation locations to reach the upper
70s to mid 80s.

The next system is expected to arrive Thursday evening into Friday
with cooler and wetter conditions expected to last through the
weekend.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Scattered showers will continue, primarily along the Rocky Mountain
Front and across the Hi-Line through the rest of the morning with
isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible this afternoon. These
storms are not expected to be severe but they may produce locally
heavy rain which may continue some of the flooding concerns for
areas that have already received a lot of rain.

With regards to the system this weekend, there is a chance for
mountain snow, primarily above 7000 feet. Confidence in amounts
above 4 inches is low but there is currently a 60% chance for at
least 2 inches of snow in the mountains Sunday morning. The main
concern will be for those recreating in the backcountry where
difficult conditions are expected Friday through Sunday.
-thor

&&

.AVIATION...
08/06Z TAF Period

A mix of low VFR to IFR conditions will continue across the plains
terminals (KGTF, KCTB, KHVR, KLWT) as rain continues to fall
across North Central Montana overnight and early tomorrow before
rain tapers to showers and then winds down Tuesday afternoon.
Winds will remain gusty through tomorrow as low pressure exits the
area to the east. For Southwestern terminals (KBZN, KEKS, KWYS,
KHLN), expect mainly VFR conditions with just a few passing
showers. Winds will be gusty here as well, but should top out
around 15-20kts.

For KGTF: Expect some periods of rain to continue through the
overnight hours and through the day on Tuesday. Westerly (240-270
degrees) winds to 25kts through 2z will keep crosswinds over 15kts
through most of the daylight hours on Tuesday. Ludwig

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

An areal flood watch will continue for the east side of Glacier
Park, Browning, Cut Bank and Shelby areas into Tuesday. Periods of
steady rain continue to affect this area, with most locations
receiving between 2 and 3 inches of rainfall already in this area.
An additional inch of rainfall is possible through Tuesday morning.
Thus some minor flood impacts could develop later today or into
Tuesday morning. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  43  76  53 /  70  10   0   0
CTB  60  43  69  50 /  90   0   0   0
HLN  68  42  77  49 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  68  38  78  44 /  20   0   0   0
WYS  63  29  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  68  39  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  63  42  75  48 /  90  30   0   0
LWT  65  41  74  50 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until noon MDT today for East Glacier Park Region-
Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-Eastern
Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Northern
High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls