500
FXUS65 KTFX 141734
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1134 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snow this morning over the Rockies, with scattered rain
  showers and windy conditions elsewhere today.

- It turns drier on Tuesday, with a slow warming trend late week.

- Another widespread rain event expected over Central and
  Southwest MT Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 405 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026/

 - Meteorological Overview:
A closed upper level low will slowly move eastwards across the
northern portions of MT today. Scattered rain
showers/thunderstorms will affect mostly the eastern portions of
the CWA this morning, with rain/snow falling over the Rocky
Mountain Front. Snow levels this morning will be around 6500 feet.
An inch or two of snow is still possible this morning at ridge
tops along the divide. Windy conditions develop this afternoon
over North Central MT, as the upper level low exits the area.

For Tue through Wednesday, expect drier and not as windy
conditions over the CWA. Seasonable temperatures are expected.

On Thursday, the next upper level approaches Southwest MT by late
in the day. Expect increasing chances for showers/thunderstorms
over Southwest MT, with the precipitation spreading northward into
Central MT by Friday morning. At this time, since this system is
expected to be quick moving, precipitation amounts will be light
side for most areas.

Showers should exit the eastern portions of the CWA on Saturday
morning, with generally dry conditions the rest of Saturday and
into early next week. Afternoon temperatures will likely be near
normal next weekend as well.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
The main concern today will be snow levels over the Rockies this
morning and windy conditions over the Plains by this afternoon.

Overall, temperatures have cooled to near freezing along the
divide for elevations above 6500 feet this morning. Light precip
should redevelop this morning as the upper level low moves
through. Day time heating will limit snow accumulations, thus no
winter weather advisory for snow will be issued at this time.

In terms of winds, it is still looking like Fergus County will
have the highest potential for strong wind gusts over 55 mph
today, so the high wind watch was changed to a high wind warning
for that county. For Judith Basin, the overall probability of
warning wind gusts is generally less than 60 percent, thus the
high wind watch was cancelled. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
14/18Z TAF Period

Scattered showers across Central and North-Central MT will
continue throughout this afternoon, dissipating early this
evening. Winds will increase early this afternoon, with widespread
gusts around 30 kts across most terminals, with around 40 kts
near KCTB. The winds will begin to decrease later this evening,
around 01-02Z for most terminals except KCTB and KLWT, which will
see winds decrease closer to 05Z. Mountain obscuration will occur
during this TAF period, especially around lingering showers.
While ceilings will begin to rise for the Southwest MT terminals
this evening, they will remain on the lower side for the Central
and North-Central MT terminals. -Dzomba

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  63  42  66  45 /  20  10   0  20
CTB  57  40  56  42 /  60  30  10  60
HLN  63  38  71  46 /  10   0   0  10
BZN  62  34  73  38 /  10   0   0   0
WYS  58  23  66  26 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  63  33  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  62  40  66  45 /  50  10   0  60
LWT  59  37  68  41 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Fergus County
below 4500ft-Snowy and Judith Mountains.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls