736
FXUS65 KTFX 031118
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
518 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Warm today before a cold front arrives this afternoon bringing
   cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday.

 - Wildfire smoke will continue to impact the region with the
   worst day expected to be Thursday.

 - Generally dry conditions are expected through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 304 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Today will be hot and dry before a cold front pushes through this
afternoon into Thursday morning. Gusty winds and another push of
wildfire smoke is expected on Thursday with cooler temperatures
expected to stick around through Friday. As the trough continues
off to the east, weak ridging will allow for temperatures to
gradually warm up this weekend. By Sunday into Monday, a trough
approaches the PacNW coast and may be our next chance for
precipitation across the region, although the finer details remain
uncertain at this time.


 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Wildfire Smoke:

Smoke will linger across much of the region through today. The
main concern will be what gets dragged down from Canada by the
cold front. The latest run of the HRRR smoke shows a significant
amount of near-surface smoke filtering into Montana Thursday. At
this time it is too early to determine the exact impacts but there
is a concern that this could be the worst day for air quality
across north-central and central Montana.


Winds on Thursday:

Gusty winds are expected on Thursday with a widespread >80% chance
for at least 30 mph across north-central Montana east of a line
between Great Falls and Chester. Probabilities for gusts higher
than that drop off fairly quickly and the strongest winds are
expected more into northeastern Montana. The main concern with
these winds will be impacts to firefighting operations.  -thor

&&

.AVIATION...
03/12Z TAF Period

A Northwest flow aloft continues across the Northern Rockies and
MT with just some scattered high clouds streaming through the
area. Areas of smoke/haze from wildfires upstream in Canada will
degrade visibility to low-VFR ranges at times at most terminals
with a period of MVFR visibility likely this morning at KCTB and
potentially also KGTF, where some mist is also present. Hoenisch

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  89  56  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  87  54  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  92  59  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  90  52  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  82  41  77  36 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  88  51  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  80  56  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  82  54  67  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls